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This is Bianca Bridger, and you’re reading the Bottom Line Up Front, where we cover the top geopolitical stories from around the world every Tuesday!

Today’s topics:

• Turkey is still getting its pound of flesh in Syria

• France is getting the opposite of a welcome party in Mali

• Drones are still drawing all the attention within the US news cycle

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Turkey Still Aims For More in Syria

Since the fall of Assad’s regime and the collapse of the SAA due to HTS (Hayat Tahrir al-Sham), a smaller operations room has begun an offensive against the US backed Kurdish enclave in Northeastern Syria with the direct support of the Turkish political establishment and its military; including providing weapons, artillery and air support, and training. The Kurds, backed by the United States and other western powers, have called on the United States to intervene and pressure Turkey into halting the offensive. Many large skirmishes have taken place, including the fall of Manbij, located on the western reaches of Kurdish control. Similarly, Turkish drone and air strikes have pounded Kurdish held positions across Northeastern Syria including Raqqa; marking the first strike on Raqqa since recapturing the city from the Islamic State (IS) in 2017.

Distinguishing Between HTS and the SNA

After more than four years of an unsteady ceasefire between Turkey, Russia, Assad’s Syria, and a coalition of Islamist rebels in the Northwestern province of Idlib; the rebels began an offensive on November 27th with the ultimate goal of taking the largest city in the country - Aleppo. However, due to poor coordination and low morale the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) quickly began to collapse. This led the HTS led coalition of rebel groups to expand its objectives to Homs, Hama, and eventually Damascus itself. On December 8th, it was announced that HTS and its allies had seized Damascus as well as government institutions. Unlike HTS and its allies who operated under the “Fatah Al-Mubin” coalition, the Turkish backed SNA (Syrian National Army) is a different entity formed in 2017 by Turkey; although it is temporarily allied with HTS. Made up of former FSA (Free Syrian Army) elements, Arabs, Turkmens, and even some Kurds, the SNA is used as a proxy force by the Turkish state. After the fall of Assad Turkey quickly turned its eye on the AANES, which it sees as a threat to Turkish national security. The SNA is composed of several militias similar to that of the HTS alliance. Within the SNA there are said to be over 40 factions; each with varying ideologies and goals. Because of this it is far less organized than HTS and its allies; such as the Turkistan Islamic Party (TIP) and Ajand Kavkaz. The SNA is based in Northwest Syria along the Turkish border. Many factions within the SNA are stronger than others, and have a larger role in the movement. Furthermore, due to the way the SNA is structured into “Legions” many of the over 40 factions are jumbled together to form these units, which makes it difficult to distinguish which of these factions are strongest or have a leading role. The SNA is believed to have around 75,000-90,000 members, however only 40,000 are represented in its three “Legions”.

What is the AANES?

Fighting in Syria has not ceased, and has only escalated in the Northeast of the country in the Kurdish controlled AANES (Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria). The AANES has many political parties but is dominated by the PYD (Democratic Union Party) and its political coalition. The PYD is a leftist Kurdish political organization ideologically aligned with the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), a militant group that wishes to establish a Kurdish autonomous state in Southeastern Turkey, Northern Iraq, and Northeast Syria. However, the PKK also criticizes the AANES for being involved with Western powers. Because of this close relationship to the PKK (a designated FTO); Turkey has directly opposed all Kurdish attempts at autonomy since the beginning of the Syrian Civil War in 2011. Furthermore, Turkey has been accused of a vast array of war crimes and genocide against the Kurdish people; dating back to the establishment of the current Turkish republic in 1923. This includes forced displacement, suppression of Kurdish culture, summary executions, and unlawful detention.

The Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), the armed wing of the AANES, is trained and armed by US forces in the fight against the Islamic State (IS), and has consistently received around $150 million per year for this purpose since its founding in 2015. Because of this funding and training the SDF (a coalition of various militias) are some of the best trained and armed in the region; which can be seen through several successful defensive operations against Turkey, the SNA, and Assad’s SAA. The AANES and SDF may be majority Kurdish, but it also includes minority Armenian, Syriac, and Assyrian Christians as well as Yazidi populations, many of whom were genocided and sold into sex slavery by the Islamic State. Interestingly, Arab tribes are also allied to the SDF, but this trend has begun to reverse with the rise of HTS to political power. The SDF has fewer fighters compared to the SNA with an estimated 40,000-60,000 personnel but is further reinforced by the Asayish. The Asayish is the “internal security force” in the AANES, and are essentially heavily armed police units that assist the SDF in combat operations, anti-crime operations, and checkpoint security and has an estimated 10,00-12,000 personnel. In times of crises the SDF can also call upon nearly 30,000 police officers spread out across the AANES.

Recent Clashes

Clashes between the SNA and Kurdish militias began prior to the current offensive during the battle for Aleppo. After the end of the battle of Aleppo in 2016 the city was largely controlled by Assad’s forces but Kurdish forces held out in the Sheikh Maqsoud and Ashrafiyeh neighborhoods in the North of the city. Due to the dual HTS and SNA offensive, several thousand Kurds fled the city along with towns in the surrounding areas; namely Tal-Rifat, which saw clashes between the YPG (the largest militia in the SDF) and SNA factions. Similarly, YPG units held out in the city for several days in which they conducted ambushes and sniper attacks on SNA vehicles. It has been reported that YPG positions in the city have been abandoned in a deal with HTS, allowing the units to withdraw into the AANES. Although, it has also been reported that some units are still engaged in fighting against both HTS and the SNA in Northern Aleppo.

Similarly, on November 30th the SNA launched an offensive on the AANES, supported by Turkish drones and aircraft. The last major city to fall on the west bank of the Euphrates river was Manbij, which has a mixed population of Arab and Kurdish residents. Fighting lasted around the city for several days, with the SDF repelling several assaults that reached the city. With these assaults came Turkish airstrikes as well as the emergence of SNA “sleeper cells” within the city. On December 11th, it was announced that the US had helped broker an agreement to hand the town over to the SNA who would allow SDF forces to withdraw across the Euphrates. This effectively contains AANES/SDF presence to the eastern bank of the Euphrates, making it easier for Turkish forces and proxies to surround the AANES. Similarly, the SNA would then be able to turn its focus towards Kobani, a symbolic town to the AANES, due to its defense against the Islamic State there in 2015. On the same day of the fall of Manbij the SDF also lost control of Deir-ez Zor to HTS through bloodless means, as they had only taken the town after the withdrawal of the SAA. Along with this came the defection of several Arab security advisors in the SDF to the HTS operations room, due to discontent living under predominantly Kurdish rule. This is certainly a setback for the SDF and could be a worrying sign of things to come, such as protests and in Raqqa by Arab residents for HTS rule leading to arrests.

Since December 11th, the SNA has continued to attack SDF positions, capturing the Tishrin Dam southeast of Manbij on December 12th. Since the fall of Tishrin a relative calm lasted for several days as the SNA, SDF, Turkey, and the US conducted ceasefire negotiations. This was short lived as on December 16th the SNA announced it would begin combat operations once again, most likely with its sites on Kobani and Hasakah. It was also reported on December 16th that Turkey began to remove the separation wall between Turkey and the AANES north of Kobani, which could signal a possible Turkish or SNA operation from not only the west but also the north. It has already been reported that an SNA advance across the Qarqozak bridge (northeast of Manbij) has been repulsed by the SDF, losing what appears to be an Armored Personnel Carrier and a T-72 Main Battle Tank.

Conclusion

Apart from the current crises for the SDF and subsequently the United States, it cannot be forgotten that the AANES holds over 9,000 Islamic State fighters in various prisons, and over 43,000 refugees - many of which are family members of imprisoned IS Fighters. The SDF has already signaled that the current SNA offensive will lead to a pause in operations against IS cells, which has put pressure on the United States to negotiate a deal with Turkey, which has thus far failed.On another note, the SNA has already indicated that their objective is to crush the AANES entirely, and the first step is to take the strategic city of Kobani located just opposite the border of Turkey. This would allow Turkey to supply SNA forces operating on the eastern bank of the Euphrates far easier. This objective has been reinforced by the Turkish Foreign Minister who said Turkey’s goal is to “crush” the SDF. In the coming days, it would seem a large-scale offensive will be undertaken by the SNA against Kurdish forces. This will most certainly lead to further tension between Turkey and other NATO leaders, especially the United States, who has over 900 military personnel still deployed in the AANES and has spent hundreds of millions of dollars arming the SDF.

Macron Effigy Burnt During Anti-Colonial Rally in Mali

On December 13, 2024, around 150 activists gathered in Bamako, the Malian capital, to demand $300 billion in reparations from France for the impacts of colonial exploitation in the country.

Organized by journalist Oumar Diabaté and businessman Mamadou Keïta, the rally concluded with the burning of an effigy of French President Emmanuel Macron. The protest is part of a wider anti-France movement in the nation itself, with a petition launched in November of this year, already amassing over 100,000 signatures. This petition demands reparations from the French government and international organizations for the economic damage caused by colonialism between 1960 and 2020.

Amadou Alpha Sissoko, CEO of ‘Kersi Consulting’, initially proposed the reparations claim, estimating the damages at $300 billion based on the extraction of gold, cotton, and other resources under French rule. However, the call for reparations comes at a time when Mali’s political leadership, the military junta that seized power in 2021, has failed to address the country’s most urgent challenges. Led by Colonel Assimi Goïta, the junta’s ability to stabilize the country is in serious question.

Since coming to power through a coup that ousted the democratically elected government, the junta has exacerbated Mali's security crisis, with widespread Islamist insurgencies sweeping across the northern and central regions. The junta’s handling of terrorism has been disastrous, as Al-Qaeda and ISIS-linked groups continue to expand their influence, seizing territory and further destabilizing the region. Rather than addressing the root causes of extremism—such as poverty, marginalization, and lack of governance—the junta has relied on heavy-handed tactics and increasingly aligned itself with Russian mercenaries, particularly the notorious Wagner Group. This shift away from France has not only alienated Mali from its former colonial power but has also worsened the security situation.

The junta's reliance on Russian contractors has provided no real solutions, only a worsening of the crisis and continued human suffering. The call for reparations, seen as not only a reaction to France’s colonial past but also a response to the current leadership’s inability to confront the realities of the present, explains the junta’s focus on stoking anti-French sentiment and aligning with authoritarian regimes—although this method has done little to improve the lives of ordinary Malians.

As Mali continues to grapple with Islamist insurgencies, economic hardships, and political dysfunction, the demands for reparations and justice from France grow louder. Yet, the real question is whether the junta, with its track record of failed governance and reliance on foreign mercenaries, is the right leadership to lead this charge. The junta’s failure to address Mali’s internal crises casts a shadow over its ability to secure a future that is both independent and prosperous.

Drones Keep Making Headlines

The recent wave of drone sightings across New Jersey, New York, and Pennsylvania has left residents and officials baffled. Since mid-November 2024, these mysterious aerial vehicles have been reported in clusters, often at night, with some described as being as large as small SUVs. Witnesses have noted unusual flight patterns and distinctive red and green flashing lights. The sightings have sparked questions about the drones' purpose, origins, and potential risks, particularly given their proximity to sensitive locations.

Where the Drones Are Appearing The drones have been spotted near critical sites, including Picatinny Arsenal, Naval Weapons Station Earle, and reservoirs in West Milford. In some instances, they have hovered over suburban areas and Coast Guard installations, prompting concerns about security. One Coast Guard officer reported a swarm of 12 to 30 drones following a motor lifeboat, an alarming scenario for those tasked with protecting vital waterways.

Reports indicate that up to 180 drones have been seen in a single night. Their consistent presence around areas like Trump National Golf Club Bedminster and Staten Island’s Coast Guard base suggests a level of coordination that exceeds casual drone usage. Their movements—sometimes hovering, other times darting swiftly—have baffled observers and raised suspicions of advanced technology.

Growing Public Concern

For residents, the drones present unsettling questions. Many worry about privacy, especially given their frequent appearances over private property and near critical infrastructure. The unexplained presence of drones in populated areas also raises fears about potential safety risks, from accidents to more nefarious possibilities like surveillance or malicious activities.

The lack of concrete explanations has fueled a range of theories. Are they part of a hobbyist project? Military-grade surveillance? Testing of new technologies? While experts point out that drones of this size typically require Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) approval, there has been no confirmation of lawful operations tied to these sightings.

Investigations and Official Actions

Federal agencies, including the FBI, FAA, and Department of Homeland Security, are actively investigating. The FAA has implemented temporary flight restrictions over high-priority areas like Picatinny Arsenal, while local officials in Montvale and other towns have declared emergency no-fly zones. Despite these efforts, definitive answers remain elusive.

To address the mystery, New Jersey Governor Phil Murphy has called for increased federal resources to investigate and manage the situation. Local and state officials are also pushing for legislation that would allow them to deploy drone detection and mitigation technologies. Currently, federal restrictions limit state and local law enforcement’s ability to act independently, leaving many feeling powerless as drones continue to appear.

Military installations, like Naval Weapons Station Earle, have already heightened their security protocols, reflecting the concern these drones have generated. At the same time, federal authorities have set up public reporting channels, which have received over 3,000 tips. Despite these efforts, the lack of physical evidence—such as recovered drones—has stymied progress in identifying their operators or purpose.

What Do We Know About the Drones?

The drones’ size, flight patterns, and choice of locations hint at sophisticated capabilities. Large drones are often used for surveillance, testing, or data collection, but their operations require careful adherence to FAA guidelines. Violations of these rules could point to unauthorized activities, whether commercial, private, or foreign in origin.

Some theories suggest these drones could belong to hobbyists, but the sheer scale and organization of the sightings make this unlikely. The possibility of corporate or military testing has not been ruled out, but no entity has stepped forward to claim responsibility. Former Maryland Governor Larry Hogan, who personally observed the drones, described them as "highly advanced" and criticized the federal response as insufficient.

Moving Forward The sightings highlight the challenges of regulating drone activity in U.S. airspace, especially as technology advances. The current patchwork of regulations makes it difficult for local authorities to respond quickly, and federal investigations can be slow. Governor Murphy’s push for new legislation to allow local enforcement of drone mitigation tools could be a crucial step toward preventing unauthorized flights.

Until then, the drones remain an unsettling mystery. While federal agencies assure the public that there is no immediate threat, their presence near critical sites demands answers. For now, the drones continue to dominate the night skies over New Jersey and its neighbors, their true purpose a matter of speculation and growing concern.

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